bayprior

• Added map_prior(): derives a meta-analytic-predictive (MAP) prior from historical trial summaries via a random-effects meta-analysis, with an explicit prior on the between-trial heterogeneity parameter tau (Schmidli et al., 2014). The meta-analysis engine is implemented entirely in base R: the posterior of mu given tau has a closed form, so the only numerical step is a one-dimensional integral over tau (stats::integrate()/stats::optimize()/stats::uniroot(), all base R) -- bayprior has no dependency, direct or optional, on any external meta-analysis package for this. outcome_type presets select the default tau prior from Roever et al. (2021)'s outcome-specific recommendations, distinguishing a single-arm log-odds case (e.g. historical control response rates -- the typical MAP use case) from a two-arm log-odds ratio case, which get different default heterogeneity-prior scales despite both being "log-odds" in casual speech.
• Added historical_effect_sizes(), a thin wrapper around metafor::escalc() (Suggests, not Imports) that converts raw per-trial summary statistics (event counts, arm means/SDs, ...) into the y/se inputs map_prior() expects, across all six supported outcome_types.
• Added a Shiny module for map_prior(), "MAP Prior (Historical)", as its own top-level sidebar item alongside "Prior Elicitation" and "Expert Pooling" -- reflecting that MAP derivation is an alternative way to construct a base informative prior, not a robustness adjustment applied to one (Robust Mixture, Sceptical, and Power Prior all take an existing base prior as input; MAP produces one). Its step-completion indicator is tracked independently of Robust Priors' own.
• prior_conflict() now also reports s_value, the surprisal -log2(box_pvalue) in bits -- an exploratory, continuous companion to the existing Box p-value / thresholded conflict_severity classification, since prior-data conflict checks are typically not powered for a binary accept/reject decision. Reported alongside (not instead of) the existing diagnostics in the console print() method, the Shiny Conflict Diagnostics tab, and the prior_report() regulatory report.

Shiny app

• Restyled the app around the package palette (navy and emerald). The stylesheet custom.css shipped with the app but was never linked, so it had no effect; it is now loaded, with dark-mode variants. Result tiles, box headers, alerts, and notifications use colour for status only, and text colours were checked for WCAG AA contrast.
• The Welcome page workflow diagram is now live: steps link to their panels and show completed steps. A "Start here" panel (elicit, derive from historical trials, or load the TRIAL-001 example) becomes "Next steps" once a prior exists. The Report step is marked complete after a report is generated and reopens when the prior or any analysis changes.
• Fitting a prior (Parametric, Roulette, or MAP) while a pooled consensus prior is active now asks whether to replace the consensus or keep it, instead of leaving downstream steps on the old consensus without notice.
• Fixed a JavaScript error in the theme-toggle script, which ran before the page body existed and stopped the rest of the script from loading. The Auto / Dark / Light button label now shows correctly on load.

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