R Observatory: Metrics for wired version 1.0.1

Balamuta, James Joseph

doi:10.5281/zenodo.21843040

wired

1.0.1

Weighted Adaptive Prediction with Structured Dependence

0packages depend

1.9Kdownloads / year

63.8%test coverage

13/13checks pass

Overview

About

Maintained by Giancarlo VercellinoFirst published 2026-02-062 releasesCRAN page ↗

Builds a joint probabilistic forecast across series and horizons using adaptive copulas (Gaussian/t) with shrinkage-repaired correlations. At the low level it calls a probabilistic mixer per series and horizon, which backtests several simple predictors, predicts next-window Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), and converts those scores into softmax weights to form a calibrated mixture (r/q/p/dfun). The mixer blends eight simple predictors: a naive predictor that wraps the last move in a PERT distribution; an arima predictor using auto.arima for one-step forecasts; an Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) gaussian predictor with mean/variance under a Gaussian; a historical bootstrap predictor that resamples past horizon-aligned moves; a drift residual bootstrap predictor combining linear trend with bootstrapped residuals; a volatility-scaled naive predictor centering on the last move and scaling by recent volatility; a robust median mad predictor using median/MAD with Laplace or Normal shape; and a shrunk quantile predictor that fits a few quantile regressions over time and interpolates to a full predictive. The function then couples the per-series mixtures on a common transform (additive/multiplicative/log-multiplicative), simulates coherent draws, and returns both transformed- and level-scale samplers and summaries.

Install

R (CRAN)Ubuntu (r2u)Fedora (COPR)openSUSE (OBS)

install.packages("wired", repos = "https://cloud.r-project.org/")

Installs the current CRAN release. Prebuilt binaries on Windows and macOS.

Release

# enable cranapt (r2u) if it is not already set up, then install
grep -rqs r2u.stat.illinois.edu /etc/apt/sources.list /etc/apt/sources.list.d/ \
  || curl -fsSL https://raw.githubusercontent.com/eddelbuettel/r2u/master/inst/scripts/add_cranapt_noble.sh | sudo bash
sudo apt install -y r-cran-wired

Fast Ubuntu binaries via r2u (no compilation). The cranapt setup runs once and is skipped when it is already enabled.

bspm (used by r2u) also needs make: sudo apt install make

# enable the iucar/cran COPR if it is not already present, then install
ls /etc/yum.repos.d/*iucar*cran*.repo >/dev/null 2>&1 \
  || sudo dnf copr enable -y iucar/cran
sudo dnf install -y R-CRAN-wired

RPMs from the iucar/cran COPR, rebuilt from CRAN.

For install.packages() integration in R, also: sudo dnf install R-CoprManager

# add the autoCRAN OBS repo (Tumbleweed) if it is missing, then install
zypper -q lr | grep -qi autoCRAN \
  || sudo zypper addrepo https://download.opensuse.org/repositories/devel:/languages:/R:/autoCRAN/openSUSE_Tumbleweed/devel:languages:R:autoCRAN.repo
sudo zypper install -y R-wired

RPMs auto-built from CRAN on openSUSE OBS (Tumbleweed).

Health

CRAN checks

13OK

Slowest check: 7.8 min · r-oldrel-windows-x86_64

Code health

Yes

Tests · ratio 0.09

63.8%

Coverage · measured lines

100%

Documentation · exports

5

Dependencies · direct

Check history

OK2026-08-04
13 OK · 0 NOTE · 0 WARNING · 0 ERROR · 0 FAILURE
NOTE2026-08-01
12 OK · 1 NOTE · 0 WARNING · 0 ERROR · 0 FAILURE
OK2026-06-09
13 OK · 0 NOTE · 0 WARNING · 0 ERROR · 0 FAILURE
ERROR2026-06-08
12 OK · 0 NOTE · 0 WARNING · 1 ERROR · 0 FAILURE
OK2026-03-10
14 OK · 0 NOTE · 0 WARNING · 0 ERROR · 0 FAILURE

Documentation

READMENoVignettesNopkgdown siteNoNEWSYes · 67% structuredCode of conductNoContributing guideNo

Examples that run: 0%
Documented parameters: 89%
Return-value docs: 100%
References docs: 0%

Downloads

1.9K

CRAN downloads in the past year

Rank #11,070 · ~5/day · ~160/mo

Releases R versions

Daily download trend is not available in this view yet.

16330 days

88390 days

1.9K1 year

Compare downloads with other packages →

Also on44 r2u

Dependencies

Declared dependencies

6 external dependencies (excludes base and recommended)

Depends (1)

R >= 4.1.0

Imports (5)

mc2d forecast quantregMASSimputeTS

LinkingTo (0)

none

Suggests (2)

knitr testthat

Enhances (0)

none

Dependency license breakdown →

Reverse dependencies

0direct

0indirect

Nothing depends on this yet.

Code & Tests

People & History

People (1)

Maintainer (1)

Giancarlo Vercellino

Author, Maintainer, Copyright holder

Authors (1)

Giancarlo Vercellino

Author, Maintainer, Copyright holder

Copyright holders (1)

Giancarlo Vercellino

Author, Maintainer, Copyright holder

Package Timeline

2 releases. Pick two to compare their code metrics. R releases are shown for context.

R
R 4.6.0 released · 2026-04-24
1.0.1Latest
2026-04-13 · current release · diff ↗
1.0.0
2026-03-10
R
R 4.5.0 released · 2025-04-11

Package metadata

First published: 2026-02-06
Total releases: 2 / 1 yrs
License: GPL-3 OSI
Minimum R: ≥ 4.1.0
Download size: 20 KB
Installed size: not tracked yet
With dependencies: not tracked yet

Cite

Cite this package

Run in R for the authors' preferred citation:

citation("wired")

Format

Vercellino, G. (2026). wired: Weighted Adaptive Prediction with Structured Dependence (Version 1.0.1) [Computer software]. https://doi.org/10.32614/CRAN.package.wired

This is what citation() produces when a package has no citation file of its own. If it prints something else, use that.

Cite the R Observatory

For a number measured here: a download total, a coverage figure, an archival date.

Format

APA

Balamuta, J. J. (2026). R Observatory: Metrics for wired version 1.0.1 [Data set]. HJJB, LLC. Data release v2026-08-18. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21843040

From data release v2026-08-18, which the citation names so these numbers can be found later. More on citing and the projects behind them.

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