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uncertainUCDP

Parametric Mixture Models for Uncertainty Estimation of Fatalities in UCDP Conflict Data

v0.7.6 · Jan 23, 2026 · GPL (>= 3)

Description

Provides functions for estimating uncertainty in the number of fatalities in the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) data. The package implements a parametric reported-value Gumbel mixture distribution that accounts for the uncertainty in the number of fatalities in the UCDP data. The model is based on information from a survey on UCDP coders and how they view the uncertainty of the number of fatalities from UCDP events. The package provides functions for making random draws of fatalities from the mixture distribution, as well as to estimate percentiles, quantiles, means, and other statistics of the distribution. Full details on the survey and estimation procedure can be found in Vesco et al (2024).

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CRAN Check Status

14 OK
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r-devel-linux-x86_64-debian-clang OK
r-devel-linux-x86_64-debian-gcc OK
r-devel-linux-x86_64-fedora-clang OK
r-devel-linux-x86_64-fedora-gcc OK
r-devel-macos-arm64 OK
r-devel-windows-x86_64 OK
r-oldrel-macos-arm64 OK
r-oldrel-macos-x86_64 OK
r-oldrel-windows-x86_64 OK
r-patched-linux-x86_64 OK
r-release-linux-x86_64 OK
r-release-macos-arm64 OK
r-release-macos-x86_64 OK
r-release-windows-x86_64 OK

Check History

OK 14 OK · 0 NOTE · 0 WARNING · 0 ERROR · 0 FAILURE Mar 10, 2026

Dependency Network

Dependencies Reverse dependencies dplyr lmtest sandwich foreach rlang tibble uncertainUCDP

Version History

new 0.7.6 Mar 10, 2026
updated 0.7.6 ← 0.7.0 diff Jan 22, 2026
updated 0.7.0 ← 0.6.1 diff Jan 19, 2026
updated 0.6.1 ← 0.5.2 diff Aug 18, 2025
new 0.5.2 Jul 1, 2024