Calculate the Knowledge-Weighted Estimate
Overview
According to a phenomenon known as "the wisdom of the crowds," combining point estimates from multiple judges often provides a more accurate aggregate estimate than using a point estimate from a single judge. However, if the judges use shared information in their estimates, the simple average will over-emphasize this common component at the expense of the judges’ private information. Asa Palley & Ville Satopää (2021) "Boosting the Wisdom of Crowds Within a Single Judgment Problem: Selective Averaging Based on Peer Predictions" https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=3504286 proposes a procedure for calculating a weighted average of the judges’ individual estimates such that resulting aggregate estimate appropriately combines the judges' collective information within a single estimation problem. The authors use both simulation and data from six experimental studies to illustrate that the weighting procedure outperforms existing averaging-like methods, such as the equally weighted average, trimmed average, and median. This aggregate estimate -- know as "the knowledge-weighted estimate" -- inputs a) judges' estimates of a continuous outcome (E) and b) predictions of others' average estimate of this outcome (P). In this R-package, the function knowledge_weighted_estimate(E,P) implements the knowledge-weighted estimate. Its use is illustrated with a simple stylized example and on real-world experimental data.
Install
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NOTECRAN incoming feasibilityr-devel-linux-x86_64-debian-clang, r-devel-linux-x86_64-debian-gcc
Maintainer: ‘Ville Satopää <ville.satopaa@gmail.com>’ Package CITATION file contains call(s) to old-style personList() or as.personList(). Please use c() on person objects instead. Package CITATION file contains call(s) to old-style citEntry(). Please use bibentry() instead.
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- NOTE12 OK, 2 NOTE2026-03-10
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Package metadata
- First published
- 2021-01-09
- Total releases
- 3 / 5 yrs
- License
- GPL-2 OSI
- Copyright
- (c) Ville Satopaa
- Minimum R
- ≥ 4.1
- Bundled data
- 223 KB / 49 files
- Download size
- 306 KB
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