BINtools
Bayesian BIN (Bias, Information, Noise) Model of Forecasting
Description
A recently proposed Bayesian BIN model disentangles the underlying processes that enable forecasters and forecasting methods to improve, decomposing forecasting accuracy into three components: bias, partial information, and noise. By describing the differences between two groups of forecasters, the model allows the user to carry out useful inference, such as calculating the posterior probabilities of the treatment reducing bias, diminishing noise, or increasing information. It also provides insight into how much tamping down bias and noise in judgment or enhancing the efficient extraction of valid information from the environment improves forecasting accuracy. This package provides easy access to the BIN model. For further information refer to the paper Ville A. Satopää, Marat Salikhov, Philip E. Tetlock, and Barbara Mellers (2021) "Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting" <doi:10.1287/mnsc.2020.3882>.
Downloads
340
Last 30 days
11564th
1K
Last 90 days
3.6K
Last year
Trend: +34.4% (30d vs prior 30d)
42
Last 30 days
128
Last 90 days
502
Last year
Trend: -19.2% (30d vs prior 30d)
CRAN Check Status
Show all 13 flavors
| Flavor | Status |
|---|---|
| r-devel-linux-x86_64-debian-clang | OK |
| r-devel-linux-x86_64-debian-gcc | OK |
| r-devel-linux-x86_64-fedora-clang | OK |
| r-devel-linux-x86_64-fedora-gcc | OK |
| r-devel-windows-x86_64 | OK |
| r-oldrel-macos-arm64 | OK |
| r-oldrel-macos-x86_64 | OK |
| r-oldrel-windows-x86_64 | OK |
| r-patched-linux-x86_64 | OK |
| r-release-linux-x86_64 | OK |
| r-release-macos-arm64 | OK |
| r-release-macos-x86_64 | OK |
| r-release-windows-x86_64 | OK |
Check History
OK 12 OK · 0 NOTE · 0 WARNING · 0 ERROR · 0 FAILURE Apr 25, 2026
NOTE 11 OK · 3 NOTE · 0 WARNING · 0 ERROR · 0 FAILURE Apr 22, 2026
installed package size
installed size is 96.6Mb
sub-directories of 1Mb or more:
libs 96.1Mb
installed package size
installed size is 97.8Mb
sub-directories of 1Mb or more:
libs 97.3Mb
installed package size
installed size is 6.0Mb
sub-directories of 1Mb or more:
libs 5.5Mb
ERROR 10 OK · 3 NOTE · 0 WARNING · 1 ERROR · 0 FAILURE Apr 18, 2026
whether package can be installed
Installation failed. See 'd:/Rcompile/CRANpkg/local/4.6/BINtools.Rcheck/00install.out' for details.
installed package size
installed size is 96.6Mb
sub-directories of 1Mb or more:
libs 96.1Mb
installed package size
installed size is 97.8Mb
sub-directories of 1Mb or more:
libs 97.3Mb
installed package size
installed size is 6.0Mb
sub-directories of 1Mb or more:
libs 5.5Mb
NOTE 11 OK · 3 NOTE · 0 WARNING · 0 ERROR · 0 FAILURE Mar 10, 2026
installed package size
installed size is 96.6Mb
sub-directories of 1Mb or more:
libs 96.1Mb
installed package size
installed size is 97.8Mb
sub-directories of 1Mb or more:
libs 97.3Mb
installed package size
installed size is 6.0Mb
sub-directories of 1Mb or more:
libs 5.5Mb