Bayesian BIN (Bias, Information, Noise) Model of Forecasting
Overview
A recently proposed Bayesian BIN model disentangles the underlying processes that enable forecasters and forecasting methods to improve, decomposing forecasting accuracy into three components: bias, partial information, and noise. By describing the differences between two groups of forecasters, the model allows the user to carry out useful inference, such as calculating the posterior probabilities of the treatment reducing bias, diminishing noise, or increasing information. It also provides insight into how much tamping down bias and noise in judgment or enhancing the efficient extraction of valid information from the environment improves forecasting accuracy. This package provides easy access to the BIN model. For further information refer to the paper Ville A. Satopää, Marat Salikhov, Philip E. Tetlock, and Barbara Mellers (2021) "Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting" doi:10.1287/mnsc.2020.3882.
Install
Health
- OK13 OK2026-08-05
- NOTE12 OK, 1 NOTE2026-08-01
- OK13 OK2026-07-29
- ERROR12 OK, 1 ERROR2026-07-27
- OK12 OK2026-04-25
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- NOTE11 OK, 3 NOTE2026-04-22
- ERROR10 OK, 3 NOTE, 1 ERROR2026-04-18
- NOTE11 OK, 3 NOTE2026-03-10
Documentation
- Help pages
- 4includes a package overview page
- Examples that run
- 0%3 only when donttest examples are enabled (R CMD check --as-cran)
- Exported functions with examples
- 100%
- Documented parameters
- 78%
- Return-value docs
- 100%
- Help pages citing references
- 25%
Downloads
Dependencies
Code & Tests
People & History
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- RR 4.6.0 released · 2026-04-24
- RR 4.5.0 released · 2025-04-11
- RR 4.4.0 released · 2024-04-24
- RR 4.3.0 released · 2023-04-21
- RR 4.2.0 released · 2022-04-22
- 0.2.0Latest
- 0.1.02021-06-10
- RR 4.1.0 released · 2021-05-18
Package metadata
- First published
- 2021-06-10
- Total releases
- 2 / 5 yrs
- License
- GPL-3 OSI
- Minimum R
- ≥ 3.4.0
- Download size
- 92 KB
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