Macroeconomic-at-Risk
Overview
The Macroeconomics-at-Risk (MaR) approach is based on a two-step semi-parametric estimation procedure that allows to forecast the full conditional distribution of an economic variable at a given horizon, as a function of a set of factors. These density forecasts are then be used to produce coherent forecasts for any downside risk measure, e.g., value-at-risk, expected shortfall, downside entropy. Initially introduced by Adrian et al. (2019) doi:10.1257/aer.20161923 to reveal the vulnerability of economic growth to financial conditions, the MaR approach is currently extensively used by international financial institutions to provide Value-at-Risk (VaR) type forecasts for GDP growth (Growth-at-Risk) or inflation (Inflation-at-Risk). This package provides methods for estimating these models. Datasets for the US and the Eurozone are available to allow testing of the Adrian et al (2019) model. This package constitutes a useful toolbox (data and functions) for private practitioners, scholars as well as policymakers.
Install
Health
- OK13 OK2026-08-05
- NOTE12 OK, 1 NOTE2026-08-01
- OK14 OK2026-03-10
Documentation
- Help pages
- 7
- Examples that run
- 80%4 run in a plain check · 1 only when donttest examples are enabled (R CMD check --as-cran)
- Exported functions with examples
- 100%
- Documented parameters
- 100%
- Return-value docs
- 100%
- Help pages citing references
- 71%
Downloads
Dependencies
Code & Tests
Datasets
People & History
- RR 4.6.0 released · 2026-04-24
- RR 4.5.0 released · 2025-04-11
- RR 4.4.0 released · 2024-04-24
- 0.1.0Latest2023-05-02 · current release
- RR 4.3.0 released · 2023-04-21
Package metadata
- First published
- 2023-05-02
- Total releases
- 1 / 3 yrs
- License
- GPL-3 OSI
- Minimum R
- ≥ 2.10
- Bundled data
- 2.7 KB / 2 files
- Download size
- 9.8 KB
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