Description
The Macroeconomics-at-Risk (MaR) approach is based on a two-step semi-parametric estimation procedure that allows to forecast the full conditional distribution of an economic variable at a given horizon, as a function of a set of factors. These density forecasts are then be used to produce coherent forecasts for any downside risk measure, e.g., value-at-risk, expected shortfall, downside entropy. Initially introduced by Adrian et al. (2019) <doi:10.1257/aer.20161923> to reveal the vulnerability of economic growth to financial conditions, the MaR approach is currently extensively used by international financial institutions to provide Value-at-Risk (VaR) type forecasts for GDP growth (Growth-at-Risk) or inflation (Inflation-at-Risk). This package provides methods for estimating these models. Datasets for the US and the Eurozone are available to allow testing of the Adrian et al (2019) model. This package constitutes a useful toolbox (data and functions) for private practitioners, scholars as well as policymakers.
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| Flavor | Status |
|---|---|
| r-devel-linux-x86_64-debian-clang | OK |
| r-devel-linux-x86_64-debian-gcc | OK |
| r-devel-linux-x86_64-fedora-clang | OK |
| r-devel-linux-x86_64-fedora-gcc | OK |
| r-devel-windows-x86_64 | OK |
| r-oldrel-macos-arm64 | OK |
| r-oldrel-macos-x86_64 | OK |
| r-oldrel-windows-x86_64 | OK |
| r-patched-linux-x86_64 | OK |
| r-release-linux-x86_64 | OK |
| r-release-macos-arm64 | OK |
| r-release-macos-x86_64 | OK |
| r-release-windows-x86_64 | OK |
Check History
OK 14 OK · 0 NOTE · 0 WARNING · 0 ERROR · 0 FAILURE Mar 10, 2026
Dependency Network
Version History
1 trackedR Observatory began tracking this package on Mar 10, 2026; it first appeared on CRAN May 2, 2023. Releases before tracking aren’t shown.