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footBayes

Fitting Bayesian and MLE Football Models

v2.0.0 · May 16, 2025 · GPL-2

Description

This is the first package allowing for the estimation, visualization and prediction of the most well-known football models: double Poisson, bivariate Poisson, Skellam, student_t, diagonal-inflated bivariate Poisson, and zero-inflated Skellam. It supports both maximum likelihood estimation (MLE, for 'static' models only) and Bayesian inference. For Bayesian methods, it incorporates several techniques: MCMC sampling with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational inference using either the Pathfinder algorithm or Automatic Differentiation Variational Inference (ADVI), and the Laplace approximation. The package compiles all the 'CmdStan' models once during installation using the 'instantiate' package. The model construction relies on the most well-known football references, such as Dixon and Coles (1997) <doi:10.1111/1467-9876.00065>, Karlis and Ntzoufras (2003) <doi:10.1111/1467-9884.00366> and Egidi, Pauli and Torelli (2018) <doi:10.1177/1471082X18798414>.

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Rd cross-references

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Check History

NOTE 11 OK · 3 NOTE · 0 WARNING · 0 ERROR · 0 FAILURE Mar 10, 2026
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package dependencies

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package dependencies

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package dependencies

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Dependency Network

Dependencies Reverse dependencies rstan instantiate reshape2 ggplot2 ggridges matrixStats extraDistr metRology dplyr tidyr numDeriv magrittr rlang posterior footBayes

Version History

new 2.0.0 Mar 10, 2026
updated 2.0.0 ← 1.0.0 diff May 15, 2025
updated 1.0.0 ← 0.2.0 diff Jan 8, 2025
updated 0.2.0 ← 0.1.0 diff Aug 30, 2023
new 0.1.0 Feb 20, 2022