braggR
Calculate the Revealed Aggregator of Probability Predictions
Description
Forecasters predicting the chances of a future event may disagree due to differing evidence or noise. To harness the collective evidence of the crowd, Ville Satopää (2021) "Regularized Aggregation of One-off Probability Predictions" <https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3769945> proposes a Bayesian aggregator that is regularized by analyzing the forecasters' disagreement and ascribing over-dispersion to noise. This aggregator requires no user intervention and can be computed efficiently even for a large numbers of predictions. The author evaluates the aggregator on subjective probability predictions collected during a four-year forecasting tournament sponsored by the US intelligence community. The aggregator improves the accuracy of simple averaging by around 20% and other state-of-the-art aggregators by 10-25%. The advantage stems almost exclusively from improved calibration. This aggregator -- know as "the revealed aggregator" -- inputs a) forecasters' probability predictions (p) of a future binary event and b) the forecasters' common prior (p0) of the future event. In this R-package, the function sample_aggregator(p,p0,...) allows the user to calculate the revealed aggregator. Its use is illustrated with a simple example.
Downloads
268
Last 30 days
18133rd
642
Last 90 days
2.5K
Last year
Trend: +51.4% (30d vs prior 30d)
25
Last 30 days
118
Last 90 days
467
Last year
Trend: -40.5% (30d vs prior 30d)
5
Last 7 days
20
Last 30 days
0
All-time
autoCRAN-only: this name is served only by autoCRAN, so the count is exact.
CRAN Check Status
Show all 13 flavors
| Flavor | Status |
|---|---|
| r-devel-linux-x86_64-debian-clang | NOTE |
| r-devel-linux-x86_64-debian-gcc | NOTE |
| r-devel-linux-x86_64-fedora-clang | OK |
| r-devel-linux-x86_64-fedora-gcc | OK |
| r-devel-windows-x86_64 | OK |
| r-oldrel-macos-arm64 | OK |
| r-oldrel-macos-x86_64 | OK |
| r-oldrel-windows-x86_64 | OK |
| r-patched-linux-x86_64 | OK |
| r-release-linux-x86_64 | OK |
| r-release-macos-arm64 | OK |
| r-release-macos-x86_64 | OK |
| r-release-windows-x86_64 | OK |
Check details (2 non-OK)
CRAN incoming feasibility
Maintainer: ‘Ville Satopää <ville.satopaa@gmail.com>’ Package CITATION file contains call(s) to old-style personList() or as.personList(). Please use c() on person objects instead. Package CITATION file contains call(s) to old-style citEntry(). Please use bibentry() instead.
CRAN incoming feasibility
Maintainer: ‘Ville Satopää <ville.satopaa@gmail.com>’ Package CITATION file contains call(s) to old-style personList() or as.personList(). Please use c() on person objects instead. Package CITATION file contains call(s) to old-style citEntry(). Please use bibentry() instead.
Check History
NOTE 12 OK · 2 NOTE · 0 WARNING · 0 ERROR · 0 FAILURE Apr 22, 2026
CRAN incoming feasibility
Maintainer: ‘Ville Satopää <ville.satopaa@gmail.com>’ Package CITATION file contains call(s) to old-style personList() or as.personList(). Please use c() on person objects instead. Package CITATION file contains call(s) to old-style citEntry(). Please use bibentry() instead.
CRAN incoming feasibility
Maintainer: ‘Ville Satopää <ville.satopaa@gmail.com>’ Package CITATION file contains call(s) to old-style personList() or as.personList(). Please use c() on person objects instead. Package CITATION file contains call(s) to old-style citEntry(). Please use bibentry() instead.
ERROR 11 OK · 2 NOTE · 0 WARNING · 1 ERROR · 0 FAILURE Apr 18, 2026
CRAN incoming feasibility
Maintainer: ‘Ville Satopää <ville.satopaa@gmail.com>’ Package CITATION file contains call(s) to old-style personList() or as.personList(). Please use c() on person objects instead. Package CITATION file contains call(s) to old-style citEntry(). Please use bibentry() instead.
CRAN incoming feasibility
Maintainer: ‘Ville Satopää <ville.satopaa@gmail.com>’ Package CITATION file contains call(s) to old-style personList() or as.personList(). Please use c() on person objects instead. Package CITATION file contains call(s) to old-style citEntry(). Please use bibentry() instead.
whether package can be installed
Installation failed. See 'd:/Rcompile/CRANpkg/local/4.6/braggR.Rcheck/00install.out' for details.
NOTE 12 OK · 2 NOTE · 0 WARNING · 0 ERROR · 0 FAILURE Mar 10, 2026
CRAN incoming feasibility
Maintainer: ‘Ville Satopää <ville.satopaa@gmail.com>’ Package CITATION file contains call(s) to old-style personList() or as.personList(). Please use c() on person objects instead. Package CITATION file contains call(s) to old-style citEntry(). Please use bibentry() instead.
CRAN incoming feasibility
Maintainer: ‘Ville Satopää <ville.satopaa@gmail.com>’ Package CITATION file contains call(s) to old-style personList() or as.personList(). Please use c() on person objects instead. Package CITATION file contains call(s) to old-style citEntry(). Please use bibentry() instead.
Code
Structure
Lines of code
457
Files
13
Compiled share
41.8%
Has compiled src
Yes
Language breakdown
API
Exported functions
1
Internal functions
1
Recent export changes
Testing & CI
Has tests
Yes
Test-to-code ratio
0.20
testthat edition
3
CI present
No
CI type
[]
PR gated
No
Docs
Return-value doc rate
100%
\dontrun example ratio
0%
Roxygen coverage
100%
Has pkgdown
No
NEWS present
No
Health & Security signals
Informational signals; not verdicts.
on.exit coverage
–
Unsafe pattern score
0
Dep constraint coverage
0%
Secret pattern count
0
Bundled 3rd-party code
2 items
Portability & License
Min R version
–
System requirements
–
C++ standard
–
License
GPL-2
License flags
SPDX valid, OSI approved
History
Versions
2
First release
2021-04-23
Latest release
2021-05-29
Avg cadence
36 days
Cold removal rate
–
Dep drift
0
LOC over versions
Per-file churn detail lives in the source pipeline: https://github.com/r-observatory/cran-code-metrics.